Economic development and analysis

This article analyzes reforms in the practice of taxation of agricultural enterprises and their effectiveness. Regulatory documents developed for the purpose of development of the agrarian sector were studied, suggestions and recommendations were made regarding the fair taxation of agricultural enterprises and the workers working in them.

This article analyzes the conventional and unconventional monetary policy instruments employed by the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan during 2020–2025. The research covers the key interest rate, required reserve ratios, bond issuance, deposit auctions, interest rate corridor, and balance sheet expansion policy. Based on statistical-empirical analysis, the effectiveness of the Central Bank's monetary policy instruments in curbing inflation, stabilizing the national currency, and managing banking system liquidity is evaluated.

This paper analyzes the role of the human factor in the public procurement process, its positive and negative aspects, and its impact on the efficiency of the procurement system. It also highlights the importance of digital technologies and electronic platforms in ensuring transparency in public procurement and improving decision-making processes. Based on the research findings, recommendations have been developed to optimize the human factor, enhance the efficient use of public funds, and increase the openness and transparency of the public procurement system.

This article examines the technology of solving economic problems using linear programming methods based on 2026 data. Graphical and simplex methods are analyzed in detail through two important practical examples: Uzbekistan’s national silk industry (atlas and shoyi production). For each problem, a mathematical model is constructed and optimal solutions are found based on 2026 price and resource indicators. The atlas and shoyi production example demonstrates the national economy and export direction. The article demonstrates the practical application of linear programming in economic decision-making and its limitations.

This article comprehensively analyzes theoretical approaches to ensuring the efficiency of investment projects and their economic content. The study examines modern methods for evaluating investment projects, indicators of financial and economic efficiency, risk management mechanisms, and institutional aspects of project financing. In addition, the role of ESG principles, innovative technologies, and strategic management approaches in improving project performance is scientifically substantiated.

This article develops an economic model for the transition of public higher education institutions to a program-based (performance-oriented) budgeting system in the context of a transitional economy. The study proposes an economic and mathematical funding model in which the amount of allocated funding consists of a baseline allocation and a performance-based component linked to an integrated performance index. A four-stage implementation model is substantiated, providing for the gradual increase in the share of performance-based funding. A comparative analysis of international experience is conducted, and the proposed model is adapted to the specific characteristics of a transitional economy. The findings offer a systematic approach that links public budget allocations to educational quality and institutional performance, minimizes financial risks, and enhances the efficiency of resource utilization.

In this article, in the context of digitization of tax administration and reduction of the human factor, a system of preliminary identification and assessment of tax risks is a priority task. In particular, the need to improve the mechanisms for segmenting taxpayers by risk level and minimizing the tax gap coefficient in the fight against the "hidden economy" determines the relevance of the topic. The article considers the criteria for identifying tax risks and models for their quantitative assessment, and makes proposals for improving the effectiveness of risk management in the tax system of Uzbekistan.

The increasing digitalization of financial regulation has accelerated the adoption of Regulatory Technology (RegTech) and Supervisory Technology (SupTech). However, existing studies typically examine these technologies independently, overlooking their interconnected roles within the financial regulatory ecosystem. This study develops an integrated conceptual framework based on the synthesis of existing literature to identify the common drivers and barriers influencing RegTech and SupTech adoption. The framework highlights the interaction between commercial banks and central banks and demonstrates that technology adoption is shaped by enabling and constraining forces operating across the regulatory ecosystem. The framework provides a foundation for future empirical research and policy development

This article examines the development dynamics of the digital payment system in Uzbekistan and its impact on the economy and financial inclusion. By analyzing the activities of local payment systems (Uzcard, Humo, Payme, Click, and others), the article highlights annual growth indicators of digital payment volumes, the share of non-cash settlements, and reforms implemented under the national "Digital Uzbekistan-2030" strategy. The study concludes with scientifically grounded proposals and recommendations for further improvement of digital payment infrastructure and expanding financial services to all segments of the population.

This article considers the theoretical, methodological and practical aspects of optimizing the economic mechanism for meeting the financial needs of small businesses from the perspective of spatial and regional economics. Using official statistical data for the Kashkadarya region and the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2022–2024, an in-depth comparative analysis of the employment dynamics of small businesses and their share in the overall regional employment structure was conducted. An econometric double linear regression model was identified and validated, which indicates a significant relationship between the expansion of the human resource potential of the sector and its structural advantage in the local labor market (R^2 = 0.934). The very high share of small businesses in regional employment (up to 78.7%) is justified by the need to move from broad lending methods to progressive financial engineering. A conceptual framework is proposed for the development of financial and credit support for small businesses at the meso level, including guarantee funds, syndicated microfinance and public-private investment partnership mechanisms.

This article examines the theoretical and legal essence of the concepts of tax optimization and tax avoidance and analyzes their differences based on academic sources and practical approaches. The study systematizes the main criteria and distinguishing features that make it possible to differentiate these two concepts and explores the specifics of their manifestation in practice. In addition, the practical application of these criteria is illustrated through examples, and recommendations are developed to prevent tax disputes and improve the efficiency of tax administration.

The article considers the financial and economic aspects of the activities and development of non-state higher educational institutions on the example of the Kashkadarya region of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Based on dynamic quarterly data from the end of 2022 to the end of 2025, a comprehensive statistical and econometric analysis of the impact of the number of students and the volume of own funds on the gross income of educational organizations was conducted. A linear regression model was built, institutional structural changes were identified, and the need for the formation of comprehensive regional support mechanisms by the state to ensure the long-term financial stability of the private higher education sector was substantiated.

Using the example of the Khorezm region, the article analyzes the economic valuation of regional natural capital and its relationship with economic, human, and environmental capital. The monetary dynamics of natural capital for 2010–2024 are studied, and structural changes among the four forms of capital are assessed through statistical. The results show a significant increase in the economic value of natural capital; however, the growth rate of environmental capital lags behind the other forms, highlighting the need to balance economic growth with environmental sustainability.

This article studies the current state of investment attractiveness of joint-stock companies using the example of joint-stock companies in the transport sector. The current state of market value of shares and dividend payments in joint-stock companies in the transport sector, such as “Uzparavtotrans” JSC, “Boshtransloyiha” JSC, is analyzed and conclusions are given.

Accurate exchange rate forecasting is of considerable practical importance for emerging and frontier markets. In such markets, exchange rates tend to exhibit high volatility and may fluctuate significantly due to depreciation pressures, external economic shocks, inflation differentials, and uncertainty in financial markets. This study employs the ARIMA–eGARCH–Monte Carlo modeling framework to forecast the USD/UZS exchange rate. The analysis is based on daily exchange rate data covering the period from January 2018 to April 2026. First, logarithmic exchange rate returns were calculated, and their stationarity was examined using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Phillips–Perron (PP), and KPSS tests. Subsequently, the ARIMA model was employed to capture the conditional mean dynamics of exchange rate returns, while sGARCH, eGARCH, and gjrGARCH models were compared to evaluate volatility clustering and asymmetric shock effects. The empirical results identified the eGARCH(1,1) specification as the best-performing model. In the next stage, 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations were conducted based on the selected model to generate exchange rate forecasts for a 252-trading-day horizon. The simulation results provided probability-based scenarios for the future path of the USD/UZS exchange rate over the following year. The baseline median forecast indicated an exchange rate of UZS 12,518 per US dollar, while the 90% prediction interval ranged from UZS 11,621 to UZS 13,218. The findings suggest that depreciation shocks have a significant impact on the dynamics of the USD/UZS exchange rate and that probability-based forecasting provides a more informative assessment of future exchange rate movements than conventional point forecasts. The proposed approach offers practical implications for the Central Bank, commercial banks, export-import enterprises, and risk managers in assessing foreign exchange risk and conducting stress testing.

The article provides an empirical analysis of the financial indicators of various countries with developed Islamic finance, where Islamic banks and Islamic windows operate, for the period 2014-2024. The results of the study showed that Islamic banks have high operational efficiency and profitability due to the use of existing infrastructure. These results also allowed us to determine which type of Islamic banking is the most appropriate choice in the current conditions of Uzbekistan. Based on international experience, optimal benchmarks and strategic recommendations for the implementation of Islamic windows in the banking system of Uzbekistan have been developed.

This article analyzes the regulatory and legal frameworks regulating gender equality and personnel policy in Uzbekistan. The study comprehensively studied international standards, national legislation, civil service reforms, gender-legal expertise, gender audit, personnel reserve and issues of ensuring equal opportunities in leadership positions, and revealed the practical importance of gender equality in public administration and personnel policy based on the Laws of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. О'РГ-562, No. О'РГ-561, No. О'РГ-788, the Strategy for Achieving Gender Equality by 2030, the Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. PF-95 dated June 19, 2025, and the World Bank's reports "Women, Business and the Law 2024" and "Uzbekistan Country Gender Assessment". It also analyzed the views of John Rawls, Max Weber, Amartya Sen, Martha Nussbaum, Anne Phillips and Sylvia Walby, the experience of Sweden, France, Germany and Canada. As a result, gender equality is not only at the level of legal guarantees, but also in the areas of open competition, meritocracy, effectiveness, a reserve of leadership personnel, safe The need to develop it as a management mechanism related to the working environment and institutional monitoring was justified.

In recent years, distance learning has become an integral part of Uzbekistan’s education system, yet a unified methodological framework for assessing its quality against international norms has not been established. This article proposes an analytical model for assessing distance learning quality based on international digital education standards (ISO/IEC 40180, ISO 21001, IMS Global/1EdTech, SCORM and xAPI, Quality Matters, OpenupEd, and the European Standards and Guidelines — ESG). The model is expressed as an integral quality index (SI) combining six dimensions: content and curriculum quality, instructional design, technological infrastructure and interoperability, learner support and engagement, assessment and learning outcomes, and quality management. The study draws on a systematic review of the literature, a comparative analysis of international standards, and secondary data. The analysis shows that national distance learning platforms (EDUUZ, the digital resources of IT-Park University) are advancing rapidly in content and technology but lag behind international norms in instructional design, learning analytics, and continuous quality management. A continuous-improvement mechanism is proposed that links quality assessment with methodological management. The findings are of practical value to educational institutions, accreditation bodies, and regulators.

Labor productivity remains one of the most reliable indicators of a firm’s competitiveness, yet small business enterprises consistently realize only a fraction of their productive potential. This article examines the mechanisms through which small firms can identify hidden labor productivity reserves and convert them into measurable results. Drawing on a systematic review of the literature, a comparative analysis of management practice, and secondary statistical data, the study distinguishes diagnostic mechanisms that make reserves visible — working-time analysis, factor decomposition, benchmarking, and a system of key performance indicators — from mobilization mechanisms that activate them, including incentive design, lean and continuous-improvement methods, investment in skills and multi-functionality, selective digitalization, and the reorganization of work. The analysis shows that, unlike in large enterprises, the reserves of small firms lie less in capital-intensive technological change and more in work organization, motivation, and the quality of managerial attention. An integrated strategic cycle is proposed that treats the identification and mobilization of reserves as a single, continuous management process. The findings are applicable to entrepreneurs, advisory institutions, and policymakers, particularly in emerging economies where this sector carries a growing share of employment.

This article assesses the impact of population reproduction processes on the formation of labor resources in the Kashkadarya region based on the results of a sociological survey. The study analyzes survey data collected among the regional population and identifies the influence of factors such as fertility rates, number of children in families, age at marriage, migration processes, living conditions, and population health on the formation of labor resources. The findings indicate that the stability of demographic processes and the high fertility orientation observed in the region create favorable conditions for the growth of labor resources. At the same time, several challenges related to migration and the development of social infrastructure remain significant. Based on the research results, practical recommendations have been developed to improve the efficient utilization of labor resources and enhance the regulation of demographic processes.

The article examines the principal directions of transforming the energy sector of the Republic of Uzbekistan on the basis of low-carbon development. It identifies the economic and institutional prerequisites for expanding renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency, modernizing energy infrastructure, and attracting green investment. The current development of solar, wind, and hydropower generation, national policies supporting the transition to a green economy, and the impact of energy transformation on the sustainability of the national economy are analysed. Particular attention is devoted to the role of the insurance market in managing climate-related, technological, investment, and infrastructure risks associated with energy projects.

This article outlines the theoretical foundations of the concept of valuation and managing the value of enterprises, the specifics of valuation and managing the value of enterprises operating in the service sectors, and the factors that determine the effectiveness of managing the value of enterprises in the service sector. Proposals were made to improve the efficiency of enterprise value management at service enterprises under term of increasing the role and importance of the service sector in the country's economy.

The article examines the conceptual foundations of sustainable transport, its key components and international implementation experience. Environmental, economic and social aspects of transport system transformation under global climate change are analyzed. Special attention is paid to electromobility, public transport development, non-motorized mobility and intelligent transport systems. Statistical data, diagrams and comparative analysis of global best practices are presented.

This article examines modern trends in youth employment within the context of the digital economy and highlights the importance of digital employment opportunities. The study analyzes the impact of digital transformation on the labor market, the growing demand for digital skills, and the adaptation of young people to the requirements of the digital economy. International experiences, particularly those of Greece and Kyrgyzstan, are reviewed to identify effective mechanisms for developing digital competencies and enhancing youth employment. Based on the research findings, scientific recommendations are proposed to improve youth preparedness for the digital economy, modernize education systems, strengthen public-private partnerships, promote digital entrepreneurship, and ensure digital inclusion.

This article analyzes the theoretical and methodological aspects of the implementation of banking ecosystems in the national banking and financial sectors of the Republic of Uzbekistan, as well as considers the issues of developing digital technologies in banking business. At the same time, problems in the development of digital technologies in banking activities are identified and proposals are made to eliminate them.