METHODOLOGY FOR IDENTIFYING INEFFICIENT SAVINGS IN UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

This article proposes a methodology for determining and analyzing the volume and value of “non-working” savings of the population of Uzbekistan, that is, investments and reserves in monetary and non-monetary form, not attracted to the official economy as investments. The methodology takes into account the specifics of the economy, in particular, the high level of influence of the US dollar on the domestic market, the high share of the shadow economy, and the low level of development of investment companies. This study proposes a multi-stage approach, in particular a multi-stage approach that combines macroeconomic balance methods, household microdata, behavioural models of cash demand, and a Bayesian structural module for resource integration. Data sources, validation processes, distribution by region, and implementation algorithm are described.