MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION IN UZBEKISTAN UNDER THE INFLATION TARGETING FRAMEWORK
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.60078/2992-877X-2026-vol4-iss4-pp152-159Abstract
This paper discusses the mechanism of transmission of the monetary policy in Uzbekistan in the framework of the inflation targeting (IT) which is officially followed by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan since 2021 (CBU). The analysis indicates that the main refinancing rate is transmitted into the financial system to impact output and prices using methods of Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Structural VAR (SVAR) on quarterly data covering 2010-2023. The results show that interest rate channel is the most effective transmission channel, exchange rate channel comes next and credit channel is limited by structural weakness in the banking sector. The monetary policy shocks explain about 18-22 percent of inflation variance at a 12-month horizon. Some of the major obstacles are dollarization, strong state-owned banking industry, ineffective financial intermediation and low financial literacy. Some of the policy prescriptions include complementary fiscal moderation, faster financial sector reform, and better communication by the central bank.
Keywords:
monetary policy transmission inflation targeting UzbekistanReferences
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