FORECASTING REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH PROCESSES USING ARIMA MODELS

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DOI:

https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss3-pp658-666

Abstract

This article investigates the application of ARIMA models, considered an advanced econometric method for time series analysis, in evaluating and forecasting regional economic growth trends. Corresponding models were constructed based on the dynamics of real economic growth rates and nominal gross regional product (GRP) volume of the Surxondaryo region for the period of 2010–2025. The stationarity of the time series was verified using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test , and the model orders were optimized based on AIC, BIC, and HQC information criteria. As a result of the study, ARIMA(0,1,2) for regional economic growth rates and ARIMA(3,2,2) for nominal GRP volume were specified, and medium-term forecast values for 2026–2031 were calculated. These models and forecasts serve as a scientific and practical basis for decision-makers in ensuring regional economic stability , maintaining employment , and planning fiscal-budgetary indicators

Keywords:

regional economic growth gross regional product (GRP) ARIMA model forecasting time series stationarity ADF test information criteria Surxondaryo region

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How to Cite

Turayev , B. (2026). FORECASTING REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH PROCESSES USING ARIMA MODELS. Advanced Economics and Pedagogical Technologies, 3(3), 658-666. https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss3-pp658-666

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Vol. 3 No. 3 : Advanced Economics and Pedagogical Technologies

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Articles

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