QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF WATER SCARCITY ON THE ECONOMY

Abstract

This study used econometric panel models to examine the influence of water shortage on economic growth in Central Asian countries. To evaluate long-term panel data, we used a pooled regression model, a fixed effect model, and a random effect model on annual data from 1990 to 2023 across five nations. After creating the models, we ran diagnostic tests using several statistical techniques. After analyzing the models listed above, we determined that the Pooled regression model is best suited to our panel data. Based on the indicators of this model, it was discovered that increased water shortage in Central Asian countries had a negative impact on economic growth. Each unit increase in water scarcity causes a 0.0166 unit loss in GDP. The findings suggest that countries experiencing severe water scarcity should prioritize water resource management and establish a water conservation program that includes the construction of infrastructure to alleviate the shortage.