This article analysis the impact of global climate change on agricultural production based on international scientific research. The study explores how factors such as rising temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and water scarcity affect crop yields. In particular, it has been proven that shifts in heat and moisture balance directly influence the growth phases and yield levels of major crops such as wheat, cotton, and maize. Empirical studies conducted in various countries using panel regression, ARIMA, and GARCH models demonstrate that climate change significantly and negatively affects agricultural production. This article emphasizes the importance of conducting similar research under the specific climatic and agronomic conditions of Uzbekistan.

The strategy ”Uzbekistan – 2030" provides for the implementation of such tasks as bringing the average income per hectare to $ 5,000 in terms of achieving the goal of a sharp increase in productivity and profitability in agriculture, bringing the volume of exports in the agricultural sector to $ 10 billion per year, bringing productivity indicators on average 45-50 quintals from cotton, 80-85 the practical implementation of such tasks depends primarily on the state of use of irrigated land. It follows from this that this article will focus on improving the use of irrigated land.

This article presents a theoretical and practical comparison between classical econometric modeling and modeling based on the fuzzy differential equations approach for forecasting agricultural yields. The study describes the mathematical structures of both models, the interrelationships between variables, and the methodology of modeling while accounting for uncertainty.

The effective use of irrigated land is an important basis for the sustainable development of agricultural production. Based on this, this article discusses the issues of improving the efficiency of the use of irrigated lands on the example of a specific territory - the Syrdarya region.