TURIZM DETERMINANTLARI VA ULARNING IQTISODIY O‘SISHGA TA’SIRI: O‘ZBEKISTON MISOLIDA EMPIRIK TAHLIL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.60078/2992-877X-2026-vol4-iss5-pp87-95Annotasiya
Ushbu maqola O‘zbekistonda xalqaro turistlar soniga ta’sir etuvchi asosiy omillarni va turizmning iqtisodiy o‘sishga hissasini empirik jihatdan tadqiq etadi. 2012–2023 yillarga oid yillik ma’lumotlar asosida Pesaran, Shin va Smit (2001) tomonidan ishlab chiqilgan autoregression taqsimlanmagan kechikish (ARDL) modeli qo‘llanilgan. Kointegratsiya uchun F-statistika (7,701) 5% ahamiyat darajasida yuqori kritik chegaradan (3,79) oshib ketgani uzoq muddatli munosabatning mavjudligini tasdiqlamoqda. Xato-korreksiya koeffitsienti (−0,6424) muvozanatdan og‘ishning har yili taxminan 64% tuzatilishini ko‘rsatadi. Uzoq muddatda turistlar sonining YaIMga ta’sir elastikligi 0,0075 bo’lib, bu turizm-o‘sish gipotezasini qo‘llab-quvvatlaydi. Savdo ochiqligi va valyuta kursi iqtisodiy o‘sishning eng muhim omillari hisoblanadi. Maqola O‘zbekiston uchun empirik adabiyotlarga hissa qo‘shib, meros turizmi, infratuzilma va valyuta kursi barqarorligi bo‘yicha siyosiy tavsiyalar taqdim etadi.
Kalit so‘zlar:
turizm iqtisodiy o‘sis ARDL kointegratsiya savdo ochiqligiBibliografik manbalar
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