ECONOMETRIC MODEL FOR DETERMINING REGIONAL TAX POTENTIAL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss3-pp726-736Abstract
This article develops an econometric model for determining regional tax potential. Based on statistical data for the regions of Uzbekistan for 2016–2024, a multifactor regression model was built, in which the impact of economic (GDP, investments), demographic (population, urbanization), financial and institutional factors on tax revenues was quantitatively assessed. Multicollinearity was optimized using correlation analysis and the VIF indicator, and the model reliability was confirmed at the level of R²=0.87. A forecast of regional tax revenues for 2025–2027 is presented based on three scenarios - base, optimistic and pessimistic. The results provide a practical basis for the formation of regional fiscal policy and the effective allocation of inter-budget resources
Keywords:
regional tax capacity econometric model multivariate regression correlation analysis scenario forecast interregional differences urbanization institutional efficiency budget planning fiscal policyReferences
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