DRIVERS OF NON-PERFORMING LOANS (NPLs) IN UZBEKISTAN’S COMMERCIAL BANKS AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF EARLY WARNING MECHANISMS FOR CREDIT RISK

Abstract

This article examines the drivers of non-performing loans (NPLs) in Uzbekistan’s commercial banks by combining macroeconomic determinants with bank-specific factors and assesses the effectiveness of early warning systems (EWS) in mitigating the procyclicality of asset-quality deterioration. The empirical narrative relies on official Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan indicators for NPLs and loan portfolios, complemented by recent empirical studies on NPL determinants in transforming banking systems. Particular attention is paid to ownership-related heterogeneity (state-owned vs. other banks), comparability issues between regulatory NPL metrics and IFRS 9-based measures, and the role of loan restructuring practices. The paper derives policy-oriented recommendations aimed at improving disclosure of asset quality, integrating IFRS 9 indicators into supervisory monitoring, and standardizing EWS triggers for timely detection of borrower credit deterioration.