FORECAST OF UZBEKISTAN’S E-COMMERCE MARKET DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 2035
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss1-pp81-88Abstract
This article develops a forward-looking outlook for Uzbekistan’s e-commerce market through 2035 and examines the main determinants of both growth speed and quality. It discusses key drivers such as the expansion of digital payments and e-government services, upgrades in logistics infrastructure, rising mobile internet penetration, the scaling of marketplace ecosystems, and the intensification of cross-border trade, alongside evolving regulation and consumer protection. The paper applies a scenario-based framework (baseline, accelerated, and inertial) to evaluate how macroeconomic conditions, competition dynamics in digital markets, and the adoption of data and AI technologies may reshape online retail. Special attention is paid to structural constraints, including consumer trust, cybersecurity risks, last-mile delivery performance, the digital divide, and capability gaps among SMEs. The findings aim to inform public policy design, business strategy, and academic research on Uzbekistan’s digital economy
Keywords:
e-commerce Uzbekistan forecast to 2035 digital economy marketplaces digital payments logistics cross-border trade regulation consumer protection competition artificial intelligenceReferences
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