ANALYSIS OF MODELING AND FORECASTING PRODUCTION VOLUMES IN THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2025-vol2-iss3-pp940-947Abstract
This article analyzes the development trends of the chemical industry in the Republic of Uzbekistan, the dynamics of production volumes, and the possibilities of modeling this process. The study empirically evaluates the elasticity of production volume in relation to investment and employment levels based on the Cobb–Douglas production function. A classical linear regression model was constructed using statistical data from 2010 to 2023, and analyses were conducted in the Stata software. Regression results indicate that the growth in production volume is more closely associated with the increase in labor resources. Additionally, forecast values for 2024–2028 were calculated using an autoregressive (AR) model, demonstrating a steady growth in chemical product output. The results of the study hold significant practical importance for strategic management of the chemical industry and for shaping investment policy.
Keywords:
chemical industry production volume Cobb–Douglas function regression analysis AR model investment labor resources economic modeling forecastingReferences
Bhashin V.K, Seth V.K. (1980) ‘Estimation of production Functions for Indian Manufacturing Industries’, Indian Journal of Industrial Relations, vol.15, no.3, pp. 395-409.
Cătălin Angelo Ioan and Ioan, G. (2015). The Complete Theory of Cobb-Douglas Production Function. Acta Universitatis Danubius Oeconomica, [online] 11(1), pp.74–114. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273205094_The_Complete_Theory_of_Cobb-Douglas_Production_Function.
Hagendorf K. (2009) ‘The Cobb-Douglas Production Function and Political Economy’, Journal of Political Economy, vol.69, no.8, pp. 69-79.
Hossain M.M., Majumder A.K, Basak T. (2012) ‘An Application of Non-Linear Cobb-Douglas Production Function to Selected Manufacturing Industries in Bangladesh’, Open Journal of Statistics, vol. 2, pp. 460-468.
Hossain M.S, Islam A.N. (2013) ‘Productivity Analysis and Measuring the Returns to Scale of Manufacturing Firms in the South-West Region of Bangladesh’, IOSR Journal Of Humanities And Social Science (IOSR-JHSS),vol.17, no.1, pp. 69-77.
Hossain S. I. (1987) Allocative and Technical Efficiency: ‘A Study of Rural Enterprises in Bangladesh’, The Journal of Developing Economics, vol.25, no.1, pp. 56-72.
Ioan, A. (2015). The Complete Theory of Cobb-Douglas Production Function. Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica, [online] 11(1). Available at: https://journals.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/oeconomica/article/view/2675
Kehindi A.L, Awoyem T.T. (2009) ‘Analysis of Economics Efficiency in Sawn wood Production in Southwest Nigeria’, Journal of Human Ecology, vol.26, no.3, pp. 175-183.
Khasan Sabirov, (2024) Озиқ - овқат саноатининг ривожланиш динамикасини моделлаштириш , Nordic_Press: Том 3 № 0003: Nordic Studies in Academic Research
stat.uz (n.d.) O‘zbekiston respublikasi milliy statistika qo‘mitasi ma’lumotlari.
trade.gov (n.d.). Uzbekistan - Chemicals. [online] www.trade.gov. Available at: https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/uzbekistan-chemicals.
Uzkimyosanoat.uz. (2021). ‘O’zkimyosanoat’ AJ. [online] Available at: https://special.uzkimyosanoat.uz/oz/press/news/matbuot-anjumani-2021-yakunlari
Wu D.M. (1975) ‘Estimation of the Cobb-Douglas Production Function’, Econometrica, vol. 43, no.4, pp. 739-744.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
