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ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHINA'S INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT AND SELECTED FACTORS
Samandar Jumaqulov

This article focuses on analyzing the growth of China's industry during the period from 1992 to 2023 and calculating its forecast for the next 5 years. The aim of the article is to examine the short-term and long-term relationships between China's industrial development and the economic indicators of the selected factors. A quantitative method was applied in the study. To analyze the industry that characterizes economic development and the macroeconomic factors influencing this indicator, econometric time series models were used, including OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) and VAR.

06/25/2025
  • PDF (Uzbek)
672-688 76 36
ECONOMIC GROWTH, FDI AND TRADE OPENNESS: CAUSALITY ANALYSIS FOR UZBEKISTAN
Ul Haq Ihtisham , Golestan Zeinabsadat

This study examines the causality between foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth, and trade openness in Uzbekistan over the period 1997-2023. Based on the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, it is concluded that all of the variables are integrated of order one, or I(1). Johansen cointegration test also confirms the existence of at least two long-run cointegrating vector among the variables in question. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is employed to examine causality in both the short and long run. The results illustrate a bi-directional relationship between FDI, economic growth, and trade openness in both time frames. These findings are suggestive of the reality that policies of trade liberalization and investment climate can stimulate economic growth, FDI inflows, and trade growth concurrently. The paper presents practical policy implications for ensuring Uzbekistan's macroeconomic stability and long-run development via a coordinated trade and investment policy.

06/24/2025
  • PDF
604-612 52 25
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