This article covers stages such as determining nonlinear trends of time series, mathematical modeling, finding trend equations using regression methods, and forecasting. In particular, taking into account the complex dynamics of economic processes, the advantages of exponential, logarithmic, and polynomial models were analyzed. The accuracy and error criteria of the forecast results are considered using practical examples.
This study examines the relationship between key macroeconomic indicators, including the Human Development Index, Gender, Business, and Law indices, as well as the ease of doing business index and import level, with the inflow of foreign direct investment into Uzbekistan. Using OLS regression, correlation analysis, cointegration tests, and other econometric techniques, the analysis reveals that changes in the Human Development Index, Gender Index, Business and Legal index, and Import level positively correlate with foreign investment inflows. This suggests that human development, gender equality, business environment, and improved import policies play crucial roles in attracting foreign investments.
The study paper provides a detailed examination of how digital marketing methods affect the economic efficiency of commercial banks, specifically within the changing environment of the banking sector. The study examines the relationship between higher digital marketing spending, increased investment in staff development, and their impact on the net income of banks using 18 years of financial data from ATIB "Mortgage Bank" in Uzbekistan. The study uses advanced statistical analysis to create Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models to predict and assess the impact of marketing initiatives in the banking industry. The results highlight a strong correlation between increased digital marketing initiatives, greater staff commitment, and higher financial success of commercial banks. The VAR and ARDL econometric equations, generated from time series data, offer a strong foundation for comprehending the dynamic relationship between marketing tactics and economic results in the banking sector. This research adds to the overall discussion on the effectiveness of digital marketing, providing significant data for financial institutions looking to improve their economic efficiency by strategically investing in marketing and human resources.
This article analyzes the current state of tourism services export in the Republic of Uzbekistan using statistical methods. It examines export data from 2018 to 2024, focusing on key service types and regional trends. The results show that tourism services rank second among all service exports and are predominantly oriented toward neighboring CIS countries. The research employs SWOT, structural, comparative, and time–series analysis. Based on the findings, the paper presents recommendations to boost tourism exports by improving infrastructure, leveraging digital marketing, enhancing regional diversification, and utilizing informal institutions.
In the article, an innovative study was conducted in foreign countries, using advanced econometric models of the analysis of the influence of digital parameters on macroeconomic indicators. The influence of numerical parameters on the GDP per capita of foreign countries was analyzed and 21-year indicators of the data of the World Bank (https://data.worldbank.org/) were used. Since the research data are based on multivariate time series, econometric equations were developed using autoregressive distributed lag ARDL (Autoregressive distributed lag) model. The results of the study showed that digital parameters in these regions showed a significant impact, showing a direct positive correlation with macroeconomic indicators.
