Accurate exchange rate forecasting is of considerable practical importance for emerging and frontier markets. In such markets, exchange rates tend to exhibit high volatility and may fluctuate significantly due to depreciation pressures, external economic shocks, inflation differentials, and uncertainty in financial markets. This study employs the ARIMA–eGARCH–Monte Carlo modeling framework to forecast the USD/UZS exchange rate. The analysis is based on daily exchange rate data covering the period from January 2018 to April 2026. First, logarithmic exchange rate returns were calculated, and their stationarity was examined using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Phillips–Perron (PP), and KPSS tests. Subsequently, the ARIMA model was employed to capture the conditional mean dynamics of exchange rate returns, while sGARCH, eGARCH, and gjrGARCH models were compared to evaluate volatility clustering and asymmetric shock effects. The empirical results identified the eGARCH(1,1) specification as the best-performing model. In the next stage, 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations were conducted based on the selected model to generate exchange rate forecasts for a 252-trading-day horizon. The simulation results provided probability-based scenarios for the future path of the USD/UZS exchange rate over the following year. The baseline median forecast indicated an exchange rate of UZS 12,518 per US dollar, while the 90% prediction interval ranged from UZS 11,621 to UZS 13,218. The findings suggest that depreciation shocks have a significant impact on the dynamics of the USD/UZS exchange rate and that probability-based forecasting provides a more informative assessment of future exchange rate movements than conventional point forecasts. The proposed approach offers practical implications for the Central Bank, commercial banks, export-import enterprises, and risk managers in assessing foreign exchange risk and conducting stress testing.

Knowledge of optimal monetary policy and frequently the rules of optimization in flexible inflation targeting assign central banks the task of developing all types of cyclical policies. The goal of optimal inflation policy is to achieve macroeconomic stability and stimulate sustainable economic growth. To determine the amount of monetary policy associated with the rule of monetary policy and to establish the proposed optimal inflation target, we use the DSGE econometric model. The relationship between r (refinancing rate) and the optimal inflation target has a downward slope. Although the growth of the optimal inflation level is smaller than the decrease in r, it has been found that in areas with current empirical significance, the slope of the relationship is close to -1. This angle parameter is sufficient to ensure uncertainty. It was found that in strategies such as price level setting and their diversity, the optimal inflation target is significantly lower and less sensitive to r."*

This article examines the role and significance of the exchange rate in ensuring macroeconomic stability in Uzbekistan. The focus is on the economic consequences arising from changes in the national currency’s exchange rate, particularly on inflation levels, the balance of foreign trade, and economic growth. The study analyzes the Central Bank's currency policy, methods of managing foreign exchange reserves in the national economy, and factors affecting external economic activities. The article reviews the volatility of the exchange rate and its impact on economic stability based on international experiences, offering effective mechanisms that can be applied in the context of Uzbekistan. This article holds theoretical and practical significance for specialists, researchers, and public administration representatives dealing with currency policy and macroeconomic stability.

This paper discusses the mechanism of transmission of the monetary policy in Uzbekistan in the framework of the inflation targeting (IT) which is officially followed by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan since 2021 (CBU). The analysis indicates that the main refinancing rate is transmitted into the financial system to impact output and prices using methods of Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Structural VAR (SVAR) on quarterly data covering 2010-2023. The results show that interest rate channel is the most effective transmission channel, exchange rate channel comes next and credit channel is limited by structural weakness in the banking sector. The monetary policy shocks explain about 18-22 percent of inflation variance at a 12-month horizon. Some of the major obstacles are dollarization, strong state-owned banking industry, ineffective financial intermediation and low financial literacy. Some of the policy prescriptions include complementary fiscal moderation, faster financial sector reform, and better communication by the central bank.

This article analyzes the state of the Republic of Uzbekistan's transition to the inflation targeting regime aimed at reducing inflation and developing the economy in the medium term, the work carried out towards this goal, and future practical experiences. Also, scientific conclusions were drawn on the effectiveness of measures aimed at reducing the high rate of inflation and bringing it to the level of developed countries in the near future of our country.

This article analyzes the conventional and unconventional monetary policy instruments employed by the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan during 2020–2025. The research covers the key interest rate, required reserve ratios, bond issuance, deposit auctions, interest rate corridor, and balance sheet expansion policy. Based on statistical-empirical analysis, the effectiveness of the Central Bank's monetary policy instruments in curbing inflation, stabilizing the national currency, and managing banking system liquidity is evaluated.

This scientific article analyzes the factors affecting the exchange rate in our
country. Also, in the case of Uzbekistan, the forecast scenarios of fluctuations in the national
currency exchange rate and the level of inflation in the domestic economy until 2026 were
implemented. It was forecast based on the statistics of the period after the liberalization of the
foreign exchange policy, that is, after October 2017

The study aims to evaluate the impact of budget balance and gross government debt on inflation in Uzbekistan for 2011-2024. A multiple linear regression analysis was employed. Results indicate a statistically significant positive relationship between budget balance, government debt, and inflation, with budget balance exerting the strongest effect.

The liquidity of enterprises directly depends on changes in macroeconomic policy. In particular, an increase in the rate of devaluation of the national currency and the rate of inflation have a negative impact on the liquidity of enterprises. The article substantiates ways to eliminate the negative effects of macroeconomic factors on the liquidity of enterprises in the republic.

The article highlights the issues of establishing the optimal level of public debt in Uzbekistan, exploring the relationship and coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. Various economic models and indicators are considered, including the inflation rate, unemployment rate, GDP per capita and interest rates. The potential consequences of an excessive increase in public debt are identified, including the risk of default and economic instability.

This article analyzes the economic growth of Uzbekistan in the 21st century. During the research, key macroeconomic indicators such as the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the level of inflation, the volume of investments, and labor productivity were examined. The obtained results were compared with scientific theories of economic growth, particularly the Solow economic growth model and other modern economic approaches. In addition, the factors influencing the sustainable development of Uzbekistan’s economy were identified, existing problems and future development paths were discussed, and certain economic indicators for the next 3–4 years were forecasted. The results of the article serve to evaluate the country’s economic policy and to draw scientifically grounded conclusions.

In the article, aimed at determining the role of Islamic financial engineering in economic development and macroeconomic indicators, it is the disclosure of the role of the Islamic financial system and other financial systems in the economic activity of countries through modeling.

This article analyzes the criteria and data for assessing income and expenses for freight transportation by rail.

The article discusses the risks faced by commercial banks in their daily activities, which can negatively affect the financial condition and stability of banks. Banks face several types of risks in their activities. For this purpose, financial, operational, strategic, reputational, legal, international, natural disaster and environmental risks, medical and health, security, cost, technological risks are studied, and the requirements developed by the Basel Committee for studying the risks of banks are also studied.

This article examines the impact of monetary policy on external economic equilibrium, with a particular focus on Uzbekistan’s trade balance. The findings indicate that monetary policy instruments affect the trade balance differently in the short and long run. The study emphasizes the need to coordinate monetary policy with trade and structural reforms.