MARKAZIY OSIYO MAMLAKATLARI ENERGETIKA DINAMIKASI VA IQTISODIY O‘SISHI: PANEL MA’LUMOTLAR TAHLILI (1990–2024)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss3-pp210-223Annotasiya
Ushbu tadqiqot beshta Markaziy Osiyo o‘tish davri iqtisodiyoti, Qozog‘iston, Qirg‘iziston, Tojikiston, Turkmaniston va O‘zbekiston, iqtisodiy o‘sishining determinantlarini 1990–2024-yillar kesimida tahlil qiladi hamda energiya iste’molining iqtisodiy o‘sishdagi o‘rniga alohida e’tibor qaratadi. Jahon banki ko‘rsatkichlaridan olingan 170 ta kuzatuvdan iborat panel ma’lumotlar asosida tadqiqot energiya iste’moli, moliyaviy rivojlanish, sanoatlashtirish va savdo ochiqligini yagona panel ma’lumotlar tizimida integratsiya qiladi. Hausman testi natijalariga ko‘ra, afzal spetsifikatsiya sifatida Fixed Effect modeli tanlangan bo‘lib, qiyosiy shaffoflik uchun Random Effect modeli natijalari ham keltirilgan. Fixed Effect modeli moliyaviy rivojlanish mamlakatlararo YaIM jon boshiga o‘sishning eng kuchli va barqaror omili ekanligini ko‘rsatdi, undan keyin ishlab chiqarishning qo‘shilgan qiymati orqali o‘lchangan sanoatlashtirish turadi. Energiya iste’moli iqtisodiy o‘sishga sezilarli ijobiy ta’sir ko‘rsatadi va mintaqada o‘sish–energiya bog‘liqligining mavjudligini tasdiqlaydi, biroq natijalar vaqt o‘tishi bilan energiya intensivligining kamayishini ham ko‘rsatadi. Savdo ochiqligi esa cheklangan institutsional salohiyat va eksport diversifikatsiyasi sharoitida bosqichma-bosqich liberallashtirishning salbiy oqibatlarini aks ettirib, YaIM jon boshiga nisbatan manfiy bog‘liqlikni namoyon etdi. Ushbu natijalar postsovet Markaziy Osiyo sharoitida energiya–o‘sish bog‘liqligi bo‘yicha mavjud empirik dalillarga hissa qo‘shadi hamda moliyaviy sektorni chuqurlashtirish, sanoatni modernizatsiya qilish, energiya samaradorligiga investitsiyalar va strategik savdo integratsiyasi bo‘yicha siyosiy tavsiyalarni taqdim etadi
Kalit so‘zlar:
iqtisodiy o‘sish energiya iste’moli moliyaviy rivojlanish sanoatlashtirish savdo ochiqligi Markaziy Osiyo panel ma’lumotlar Fixed Effect modeli Random Effect modeli o‘tish davri iqtisodiyotlariBibliografik manbalar
Abubakirova, A., Omarova, A., Amaniyazova, G., Saubetova, B., & Esturlieva, A. (2023). Determinants of energy consumption in Central Asian countries: panel data analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 13(6), 288-294.
Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. A. (2001). The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation. American Economic Review, 91(5), 1369–1401.
Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2010). Energy consumption and economic growth in Central America: Evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1421–1426.
Baltagi, B. H. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data (4th ed.). Wiley.
Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Levine, R. (2000). A new database on the structure and development of the financial sector. World Bank Economic Review, 14(3), 597–605.
Bouoıyour, J., Selmı, R., & Ozturk, I. (2014). The nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth: new insights from meta-analysis. Intern
Caporin, M., Kuziboev, B., Ibadullaev, E., Khodjaniyazov, E., Marty, P., & Saidmamatov, O. (2024). The Contribution of Green, Blue, and Energy Sources to Economic Development in Central Asia. Economies, 12(9), 251.
Elfaki, K. E., Handoyo, R. D., & Ibrahim, K. H. (2021). The impact of industrialization, trade openness, financial development, and energy consumption on economic growth in Indonesia. Economies, 9(4), 174.
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276.
Felipe, J. (2018). Asia’s industrial transformation: the role of manufacturing and global value chains (Part 1). Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper, (549).
Filimonova, I. V., Komarova, A. V., & Mishenin, M. V. (2020). Relationship of energy consumption and economic growth in Russia. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 421, 032006.
Filipović, S., Orlov, A., & Andrejević Panić, A. (2024). Key forecasts and prospects for green transition in the region of Central Asia beyond 2022. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 14(25).
Greene, W. H. (2012). Econometric analysis (7th ed.). Pearson.
Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251–1271.
Hsiao, C. (2014). Analysis of panel data (3rd ed.). Cambridge University Press.
International Energy Agency (IEA). (2022). Central Asia energy outlook. IEA Publications.
Keho, Y. (2017). The impact of trade openness on economic growth: The case of Cote d’Ivoire. Cogent Economics & Finance, 5(1), 1332820.
King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717–737.
Komal, R., & Abbas, F. (2015). Linking financial development, economic growth and energy consumption in Pakistan. Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, 44, 211-220.
Kurmanov, N., Bakirbekova, A., Adiyetova, E., Satbayeva, A., Rakhimbekova, A., & Nabiyeva, M. (2025). ICTs' impact on energy consumption and economic growth in the countries of Central Asia: an empirical analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 15.
Kuziboev, B., Saidmamatov, O., Khodjaniyazov, E., et al. (2024). CO2 Emissions, Remittances, Energy Intensity and Economic Development: The Evidence from Central Asia. Economies, 12(4), 95.
Kuzmin, E., Vlasov, M., Strielkowski, W., et al. (2023). Human capital in the sustainable economic development of the energy sector.
Ozturk, I. (2010). A literature survey on energy–growth nexus. Energy Policy, 38(1), 340–349.
Pavlidou, S., Topaloglou, L., Kanteler, D., Tagaris, E., & Sotiropoulou, R. E. P. (2026). Aligning Governance, Investment, Land Use, and Climate Resilience in Energy Transition Regions: Evidence from the Resilience–Investment–Land Nexus. Energies, 19(5), 1287.
Pomfret, R. (2006). The Central Asian economies since independence. Princeton University Press.
Rafindadi, A. A., & Ozturk, I. (2017). Dynamic effects of financial development, trade openness and economic growth on energy consumption: evidence from South Africa. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(3), 74-85.
Rodriguez, F., & Rodrik, D. (2001). Trade policy and economic growth: A skeptic's guide to the cross-national evidence. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 15, 261–325
Samimi, A. J., Sadeghi, S., & Sadeghi, S. (2012). Trade openness and economic growth: A new approach. Journal of Business Management and Economics, 3(3), 168–174.
Schreiber, S. (2008). The Hausman test statistic can be negative even asymptotically. Journal of Economics and Statistics, 228(4), 394-405.
Sowrov, S. M. T. H. (2024). Trade Openness, Tariffs and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study from Countries of G-20.
Stern, D. I. (2004). The rise and fall of the environmental Kuznets curve. World Development, 32(8), 1419–1439
Stern, D. I. (2011). The role of energy in economic growth. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1219(1), 26–51.
Sulaimanova, B., Overland, I., Sabyrbekov, R., & Vakulchuk, R. (2023). Energy transition in Central Asia: A systematic literature review. Climate Change in Central Asia, 69-82.
Szirmai, A. (2012). Industrialisation as an engine of growth in developing countries, 1950–2005. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 23(4), 406–420.
UNIDO. (2020). Industrial development report 2020: Industrializing in the digital age. United Nations Industrial Development Organization.
Vakulchuk, R., & Overland, I. (2021). Central Asia is a missing link in analyses of critical materials for the global clean energy transition. One Earth, 4(12), 1678-1692.
Vasić, B., Pekić, I., & Šimić, G. (2023). Energy security of the European Union and corruption in Central Asia as the main challenges for the European sustainable energy future. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 13(1), 31.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data (2nd ed.). MIT Press.
World Bank. (2026). World Development Indicators. The World Bank. Available from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators.
Yanikkaya, H. (2003). Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation. Journal of Development economics, 72(1), 57-89.
